Oklahoma: Not OK

hypergeometric:

Funny how convenient it is to paint over inconvenient truths.

Yo Tamino!

Originally posted on Open Mind:

Oklahoma is not OK.

View original 608 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

“I’m sorry.”

“It is up to us to take care of this planet.”

Posted in carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, humanism, meteorology, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists | Leave a comment

Eli Rabett on the APS “Draft Statement on Earth’s Changing Climate”

This is from Rabett Run. The American Physical Society (“APS”) is working on a draft statement on climate change. Compared to other scientific organizations (and my own primary society, the American Statistical Association), it’s sure taking them a long time.

My criticism of the draft statement is the lack of urgency. Given that damage to the climate through emission of greenhouse gases accumulates and remains, this is a serious omission and I would strongly recommend inserting the second paragraph of the previous statement at the end of the current draft

“The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.”

The evidence that the damage will persist for centuries is inherent in every model of the carbon cycle from the simplest to the most complex, and dealt with by the IPCC WG1 reports. The reason why urgency is needed at every point is explained by Stephen Gardiner in a Perfect Moral Storm

“the presence of the problem of moral corruption reveals another sense in which climate change may be a perfect moral storm. This is that its complexity may turn out to be perfectly convenient for us, the current generation, and indeed for each successor generation as it comes to occupy our position. For one thing, it provides each generation with the cover under which it can seem to be taking the issue seriously – by negotiating weak and largely substanceless global accords, for example, and then heralding them as great achievements – when really it is simply exploiting its temporal position. For another, all of this can occur without the exploitative generation actually having to acknowledge that this is what it is doing. By avoiding overtly selfish behaviour, earlier generations can take advantage of the future without the unpleasantness of admitting it – either to others, or, perhaps more importantly, to itself.

(Emphasis added.)

Posted in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, diffusion processes, ecology, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, meteorology, methane, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, politics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, solar power, testing, the right to know, time series, WHOI, wind power | Leave a comment

The ShoutROC action on the climate rally, Concord, MA, 19th April 2015.

Album available.

Y’think this is play stuff? These start slow, but, in the end, they are overwhelming.

Go ahead, try to say “No, we’re gonna consume all we want, and what’s left is YOUR problem” to this citizen:

14

Posted in Boston Ethical Society, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, conservation, ethics, fossil fuel divestment, history, humanism, reasonableness, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists | Leave a comment

“Climate Change, the Elevator Pitch”

Richard Alley:

Katharine Hayhoe:

Eric Rignot:

Simon Donner:

Mauri Pelto:

Ken Caldeira:

Posted in Antarctica, Arctic, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, consumption, geophysics, IPCC, meteorology, NCAR, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, risk, science, science education, statistics | Tagged | Leave a comment

“A vignette on Metropolis” (Christian Robert)

hypergeometric:

This is a very welcome addition by a master of Bayesian computation, providing a great, brief answer for many of my colleagues who ask, “What’s this MCMC thing about anyway?”

Originally posted on Xi'an's Og:

Over the Atlantic, Dec. 14, 2010Over the past week, I wrote a short introduction to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, mostly in the style of our Introduction to Monte Carlo with R book, that is, with very little theory and worked-out illustrations on simple examples. (And partly over the Atlantic on my flight to New York and Columbia.) This vignette is intended for the Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online Series, modulo possible revision. Again, nothing novel therein, except for new examples.

View original

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, MCMC, optimization, probabilistic programming, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

“Women in Oceanography”, on WHOI’s R/V Knorr; “Ice, Eddies, and Climate Change” by Scripps’ Pinkel

The research vessel Knorr is a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) vessel.

Here’s more from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, speaking on “Ice, Eddies and Climate Change”:

Posted in Antarctica, Arctic, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate education, ecology, environment, geophysics, IPCC, meteorology, oceanography, physics, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, WHOI | Leave a comment