Support the Keeling Curve
- Oklahoma: Not OK 24 April 2015
- “I’m sorry.” 23 April 2015
- Eli Rabett on the APS “Draft Statement on Earth’s Changing Climate” 21 April 2015
- The ShoutROC action on the climate rally, Concord, MA, 19th April 2015. 20 April 2015
- “Climate Change, the Elevator Pitch” 13 April 2015
- “A vignette on Metropolis” (Christian Robert) 12 April 2015
- “Women in Oceanography”, on WHOI’s R/V Knorr; “Ice, Eddies, and Climate Change” by Scripps’ Pinkel 12 April 2015
- Earth Day, my hope 9 April 2015
- “Dong Energy has entered the US offshore market by acquiring a 759 square kilometer development area off the Massachusetts coast” 8 April 2015
- “This planet comes with limits” 5 April 2015
- “Where is the horse?” Tony Seba 3 April 2015
- Climate week at Harvard, 6th-10th April 2015 3 April 2015
“It is up to us to take care of this planet.”
This is from Rabett Run. The American Physical Society (“APS”) is working on a draft statement on climate change. Compared to other scientific organizations (and my own primary society, the American Statistical Association), it’s sure taking them a long time.
My criticism of the draft statement is the lack of urgency. Given that damage to the climate through emission of greenhouse gases accumulates and remains, this is a serious omission and I would strongly recommend inserting the second paragraph of the previous statement at the end of the current draft
“The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.”
The evidence that the damage will persist for centuries is inherent in every model of the carbon cycle from the simplest to the most complex, and dealt with by the IPCC WG1 reports. The reason why urgency is needed at every point is explained by Stephen Gardiner in a Perfect Moral Storm
“the presence of the problem of moral corruption reveals another sense in which climate change may be a perfect moral storm. This is that its complexity may turn out to be perfectly convenient for us, the current generation, and indeed for each successor generation as it comes to occupy our position. For one thing, it provides each generation with the cover under which it can seem to be taking the issue seriously – by negotiating weak and largely substanceless global accords, for example, and then heralding them as great achievements – when really it is simply exploiting its temporal position. For another, all of this can occur without the exploitative generation actually having to acknowledge that this is what it is doing. By avoiding overtly selfish behaviour, earlier generations can take advantage of the future without the unpleasantness of admitting it – either to others, or, perhaps more importantly, to itself.“
Y’think this is play stuff? These start slow, but, in the end, they are overwhelming.
Go ahead, try to say “No, we’re gonna consume all we want, and what’s left is YOUR problem” to this citizen:
This is a very welcome addition by a master of Bayesian computation, providing a great, brief answer for many of my colleagues who ask, “What’s this MCMC thing about anyway?”
Originally posted on Xi'an's Og:
Over the past week, I wrote a short introduction to the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, mostly in the style of our Introduction to Monte Carlo with R book, that is, with very little theory and worked-out illustrations on simple examples. (And partly over the Atlantic on my flight to New York and Columbia.) This vignette is intended for the Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online Series, modulo possible revision. Again, nothing novel therein, except for new examples.
The research vessel Knorr is a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) vessel.
Here’s more from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, speaking on “Ice, Eddies and Climate Change”: